Top NewsIowa caucuses today: What to watch

Iowa caucuses today: What to watch


Follow along Live coverage of the Iowa caucuses.

Republicans in the state are former President Donald J. The coldest Iowa caucuses in history arrived Monday night amid expectations that they would put Trump in the running for a third GOP presidential nomination.

The tight second-place race between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley will be a major draw for Mr. Trump in the New Hampshire primary and beyond.

The stakes are high for Iowans. Despite — or perhaps because of — Mr. Trump returns to the presidency. She is already a woman responsible for sexual abuse.

Overcoming the “chaos” and controversies of the Trump era, Mr. His opponents urged Republican voters to choose a different standard-bearer against President Biden, who defeated Trump. .

Here's what to look for when it comes to results.

Traditionally, the Iowa caucuses have been so close that Democrats have failed to produce decisive results in a messy 2020 race. Republicans declared Mitt Romney the narrow winner in 2012, and the real winner, Rick Santorum, lost the momentum a caucus victory could bring.

This time, polling continued Mr. It has given Trump a good lead, and the former president has not campaigned in the state. Leading up to the final weekend, he and his campaign were projecting hopes of a victory, which has raised expectations when most campaigns seek to lower them.

Mr. If Trump crosses 50 percent, he will get what he predicts is “a historic landslide.” Perhaps most importantly, the Republican field is Mr. A win over Trump and a rival would have signaled in Iowa that he may have the loyalty of a majority of the party's primary voters, at least in the heartland.

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Mr. DeSantis officially entered the Republican presidential race in May with strong financial support, and he would win Iowa and embrace his policies, leading the party to Mr. He also talked about helping Trump turn the page.

But a campaign apparatus built around her super PAC has stumbled just as Ms. Haley was finding her feet. He initially focused on New Hampshire and his home state, jumping to Iowa as of late.

A final Iowa poll by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom surprisingly found Mr. Mrs. 20 percent for Haley and Mr. DeSantis also had 16 percent — a margin within the poll's margin of error.

A second-place finish for Ms. Haley will give her a boost over New Hampshire, where she lost to Mr. Trump is closing in and may benefit from former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropping out of the presidential race on Wednesday. Mr. For DeSantis, a third-place finish would be more devastating than New Hampshire He slipped into single digits In polling averages, and South Carolina, which Mr. A doubt for Trump and Ms. Haley's home turf.

Ms. Haley's final argument in Iowa is that Mr. Not only will I defeat Biden, but I will defeat him in a landslide that echoes the era of consolidated conservative rule in Washington. A The CBS News poll was released Sunday Mr. Trump and Mr. Both DeSantis narrowly led the president, but Ms. Haley defeated him by eight percentage points, 53 percent to 45 percent.

Despite the former president's personal belongings and legal risk, Mr. Many Iowa Republicans believe Trump is a proven commodity who can beat Mr. Biden. But in a New York Times/Siena College poll released last month, 39 percent supported him.

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His job in Iowa is to stick with the sizable number of Iowans who don't have a college degree as he tries to appeal to a broad Republican electorate, which Mr. Turned by Trump into a stronghold of voters without a college education. Ms. Haley had the support of just 3 percent of those voters in a Times/Siena poll.

The Iowa caucuses have never been particularly Democratic. Monday's meetings at 1,657 sites are similar to party meetings. Local residents would gather, conduct some business, hear pitches from representatives of each campaign, and then finally turn in secret ballots. Caucuses are time-consuming and public — and not particularly well attended.

In 2016, when Republicans last held contested caucuses, 186,874 votes were cast. 615,066 are registered RepublicansAbout 30 percent turnout.

Temperatures will drop to minus 7 degrees in much of the state on Monday night, with snow blowing on icy roads. Mr. DeSantis praised the move to get out of the vote. A door-knocker for Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative activist group funded by the fortunes of Charles and David Koch, Ms. Haley. Mr. Trump has a more organized ground game than he did in 2016, when he finished second only to Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. All of these will fight the elements.

Speaking to supporters in Indianola, Iowa, on Monday, Mr. Trump said they should caucus “even if you're sick as a dog.” He then joked, “It's worth it even if you vote and pass.”

Polling will not only affect the order of finish for candidates, but also how real their bragging rights will be as they move into upcoming more representative primaries.

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No one puts shoe leather in Iowa like Vivek Ramaswamy. Support increased in AugustOnly to sink back into the single digits – 8 percent in the final Iowa poll.

There's former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Texas businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley, both of whom came in with 1 percent in the final Iowa poll.

When he attacked his former partner on Saturday, Mr. Mr. Trump Numbers like these don't indicate that any of them have much influence, though they are clearly playing to Ramasamy's voters.

Traditionally, Iowa caucuses are won in even-runs. Former Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina and Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota were not even on the first ballot. (Mr. Burgum endorsed Mr. Trump at the Indianola rally.)

Both Mr Ramaswamy and Mr Hutchinson say they are beating expectations.

“I believe I am the last, best chance this country has,” said Mr. Ramaswamy told Iowans at an event Friday.

But depending on their performance on Monday, it remains to be seen whether they will come out and pick a side: Mr. Trump or someone else.

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